The Yield Curve Just Inverted — Here's the Setup We're Watching

The 2s10s spread printed -4 basis points at 09:42 ET, the first sustained inversion since the summer of 2022. Historically, every recession that followed an inversion was preceded by a 3-to-14 month window where rate-sensitive cyclicals — regional banks, homebuilders, and small-cap industrials — outperformed the index by 7 to 11 points before the S&P rolled over. We are twelve trading days into that window, and the T-I Volatility Score is already flagging nine regional-bank tickers that have compressed below their 90-day realized vol by more than one standard deviation.

That is the setup. The actionable piece — the specific entries, the size of the starter position, the stop placement, the hedge leg using June puts, and the two earnings catalysts we are stalking this week — is in the full briefing that lands in 241,800 inboxes at 06:30 ET. The math is straightforward. The patience is not. Read the full Tactical Alpha briefing →