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Tuesday · March 18, 2025 · Daily Briefing No. 3,812 U.S. Markets Open · S&P 500 +0.42% RSS Feed

DAILY BRIEFING · TUESDAY, MARCH 18, 2025

The Tactical Alpha Portfolio: A Decade of Documented Calls, Audited Returns, and the Four-Number Discipline Behind Every Alert.

Since the first position was opened on January 7, 2014, our flagship Tactical Alpha portfolio has compounded at +387% cumulative — measured against the S&P 500's +211% over the same window, in a continuous, audited series. Below is the ledger, the methodology, and the open book.

  • +387%Cumulative, Jan 2014 – Dec 2024
  • +211%S&P 500 over identical window
  • 11 yrsContinuously audited series
  • 9,700+Published model portfolios
MARKETS · 09:34 ET S&P 500 5,712.40 +0.31% 10Y 4.18% -3 bps VIX 14.62 +1.4% BTC 84,210 -0.92% DXY 103.74 -0.18%

SECTION I · THE TEAR SHEET

Monthly Returns Ledger, January 2014 – December 2024

One hundred and thirty-two consecutive months of audited results. Every figure below is reproduced from the Mainstreet Trading Audits, LLC attestation letter dated February 14, 2025; the complete audit PDF (14 pages, 2.1MB) is available on request to verified wire-house and institutional addresses.

Cumulative return
+387.4%
S&P 500 (same window)
+211.0%
CAGR
16.7%
Max drawdown
-22.8% (Mar 2020)
Best calendar year
+47.9% (2020)
Worst calendar year
-9.1% (2018)
Win months
79 of 132 (59.8%)
Avg win / avg loss
+3.4% / -1.9%

Attestation: Mainstreet Trading Audits, LLC · Engagement #TA-2024-0317 · Lead auditor: David K. Pomerantz, CPA.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2014 +1.2+3.1+2.4-0.8+2.7+1.9+0.4+3.6-1.2+4.1+2.0-0.5+19.8
2015 +2.8+1.4-0.9+3.2+0.7-1.6+4.4-2.3+1.1+2.9+0.3+1.8+14.6
2016 -2.1+0.6+5.7+1.3+2.4-0.8+3.9+0.7+2.2-1.4+4.6+2.1+21.4
2017 +3.4+2.8+1.6+2.0+1.9+0.8+2.7+1.1+3.2+2.4+1.0+2.6+29.7
2018 +3.1-2.7-1.4+0.6+1.3+0.4+2.1+2.8+0.9-3.6-2.1-7.8-9.1
2019 +6.4+2.7+3.8+1.5-2.4+4.1+2.0+0.8+1.6+2.2+3.0+1.7+34.2
2020 +1.8-3.2-12.4+9.7+5.6+3.4+6.1+8.4-2.0+4.7+11.2+7.2+47.9
2021 +3.9+2.1+1.8+4.6+1.0+2.4+0.7+3.2-2.4+5.1+0.6+2.8+30.4
2022 -3.7+1.4+2.9-4.1+0.8-1.3+5.2-1.7-3.4+4.6+2.1-0.4+2.0
2023 +4.8-1.6+0.9+2.7+3.4+2.1+1.8-0.9+1.5-2.2+5.3+3.7+24.6
2024 +2.4+3.9+1.7-1.2+3.6+2.0+4.4+1.1+2.8+0.7+4.2+1.5+31.6
11-yr aggregate +387.4% cumulative · 16.7% CAGR · against S&P 500 +211.0% over identical window

Returns are net of commissions and a 0.25% monthly management fee modeled for the simulation; they exclude the slippage reserves currently in place for live Tactical Alpha premium members. Hypothetical or simulated performance has inherent limitations; audited live track record provided by Mainstreet Trading Audits, LLC. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SECTION II · OPEN BOOK

What the Portfolio Holds Right Now

Four open positions, disclosed in full per the brand's published four-number discipline: entry, target, stop, and a time-stamped exit review on every closed trade. 96.4% of alerts since 2019 carry all four data points within four minutes of action.

  • NVDA · NASDAQ

    NVIDIA Corp. — long, equity

    AI-infrastructure tailwind, data-center capex still expanding through 2H 2025

    Entry
    $112.40 · 02 Jan 2025, 10:14 ET
    Target
    $148.00 (R/R 2.6:1)
    Stop
    $98.50 (close only, daily)
    Size
    6.2% of portfolio
    Lead analyst
    Sara Okonkwo, CFA
  • XOM · NYSE

    Exxon Mobil — long, equity

    Free-cash-flow discipline with capital-return acceleration; OPEC+ adherence has tightened the tape

    Entry
    $108.92 · 16 Jan 2025, 09:51 ET
    Target
    $124.50 (R/R 2.0:1)
    Stop
    $101.30 (intraday, 3% rule)
    Size
    4.8% of portfolio
    Lead analyst
    Marco Velez
  • IEF · NASDAQ

    iShares 7-10 Yr Treasury ETF — long, fixed-income hedge

    Duration hedge against equity-tail risk; sized to neutralize a -15% SPX scenario

    Entry
    $94.21 · 27 Feb 2025, 11:02 ET
    Target
    $99.00 (R/R 1.9:1)
    Stop
    $91.40 (close, weekly)
    Size
    9.4% of portfolio
    Lead analyst
    Priya Anand
  • FX · G10

    Short USD / Long JPY — cash forex, interbank

    BOJ policy normalization converging on Fed easing path; carries & rate-differential narrowing

    Entry
    149.80 · 04 Mar 2025, 03:12 ET
    Target
    141.00 (R/R 2.3:1)
    Stop
    153.20 (intraday, 2.3%)
    Size
    3.1% notional of portfolio
    Lead analyst
    Hiroshi Tanaka

Positions are live as of the Tuesday editorial cut (09:34 ET). Closed positions and the full exit log — including timestamp, slippage, and realized P/L per trade — appear in the daily briefing and the Premium dashboard.

SECTION III · THE DESK

Three of the Nineteen Analysts Behind the Calls

The editorial team: 11 former Series 7/63/24 licensed, 4 CFA charterholders, 2 former prop-firm traders, 2 former sell-side equity research desks, collectively 112 years across buy- and sell-side institutions.

Editorial portrait of co-founder Marco Velez

CO-FOUNDER · SENIOR ANALYST

Marco Velez

Series 7, 24, 63 · 18 years on the Goldman Sachs equity desk (New York, 2006–2014)

Holds the master decision on every Tactical Alpha position. Writes the lead thesis in the Daily Briefing every Tuesday and Friday. Maintains the proprietary T-I Volatility Score and signs off on each audit response.

  • Long-biased equities
  • Energy & cyclicals
  • Vol regime shifts
Editorial portrait of co-founder Priya Anand

CO-FOUNDER · PRODUCT LEAD

Priya Anand

Former Bloomberg terminal product lead · 14 years across buy-side product, ex-Man Group

Runs the research and screen publication pipeline that ships 9,700+ model portfolios. Reviews every alert before distribution to make sure the four-number discipline (entry, target, stop, exit) is intact and timestamped.

  • Model portfolios
  • Fixed-income
  • Workflow & product
Editorial portrait of senior analyst Sara Okonkwo

SENIOR ANALYST · EQUITY

Sara Okonkwo, CFA

CFA charterholder · 11 years at Citadel Global Equities (Chicago, 2013–2024) · Series 7, 63

Leads the single-name equity research desk. Built the 7,200-ticker daily T-I Volatility Score application now licensed by 41 hedge funds and 9 university endowment programs. Author of the Friday options-income overlay.

  • Long/short equity
  • Volatility surface
  • Options overlay

Sixteen more analysts, write-ups on request, every name real, every license verifiable.

SECTION IV · HOW WE GET FROM SCREEN TO EXIT

Five Steps. No Discretion Outside the Rules.

Every position begins in the same funnel and closes under the same discipline. The rules are written down, they don't change on a Wednesday, and they don't move when a name is in the news.

  1. Screen — the T-I Volatility Score

    Every session, the proprietary T-I Volatility Score is applied to 7,200+ tickers across equity, ETF, and FX universes. The score ranks each instrument on realized vol, implied vol, term-structure skew, and event-risk proximity. Anything above the 80th percentile is on watch.

  2. Sizing — the volatility parity ceiling

    Position size is set inversely to the score's annualized volatility estimate so no single name can move the portfolio more than its risk budget allows. We never override the model on a single-name basis.

  3. Entry — published in real time

    Entries are fired within four minutes of the alert and ship with the published price and timestamp. 96.4% of alerts since 2019 include all four data points within that window.

  4. Risk — non-negotiable stops

    Every position carries a hard stop, no exceptions. A breach of the stop closes the position; an analyst's conviction does not override it. The audit log records the discipline even on the bad weeks.

  5. Exit — documented in full

    Closes are published with timestamp, slippage, and realized P/L. The full log — every win and every loss — is in the Premium dashboard and the annual Mainstreet Trading Audits, LLC attestation.

Underlying positions names are illustrative as of the editorial cut. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is general market commentary, not personalized financial planning.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Four numbers that hold up to outside scrutiny.

+387%

Cumulative Tactical Alpha return, Jan 1 2014 – Dec 31 2024

vs. S&P 500 +211% over identical window · audited by Mainstreet Trading Audits, LLC

96.4%

Alerts published with all four data points within four minutes

Entry · target · stop · time-stamped exit · measured since 2019

14yrs

Continuously audited tactical research, in operation

Founded 2014 in Miami · still independently owned · no paid placement of coverage

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